Corona Lockdown

Thread starter #1
I think I'm going to get to live through my first plague. I live in Southern California, and as of right now Seattle has a bunch of cases, and LA and San Francisco are about to blossom. The only thing holding back the full realization is the lack of testing. I think I'll be told to work from home before long, maybe in a week. (I wish MO2 was live now)

If Italy is a good case study, 10% of those infected really need some hospital care on the order of at least two weeks. This hits older folks a lot harder than the young, and most nations are made of a big population of older folks. If current rates of infection keep, hospital beds in the US could be maxed by mid May. We might be able to contain its spread? But the nature of the random new cases, and the botched response by the government, makes me feel its pretty well out there now.

I hope I am totally wrong and have no idea what I am talking about. I'd be just fine with that. But my science friends and I stocked up on canned goods and necessities a few weeks ago to be able to hunker down for a while.
 

Xunila

Cronite Supporter
I hope I am totally wrong and have no idea what I am talking about. I'd be just fine with that. But my science friends and I stocked up on canned goods and necessities a few weeks ago to be able to hunker down for a while.
Do you know about something like a influenza wave running though the world every winter with a death counter of thousands in Germany alone and hundreds of thousands worldwide? Do you lock down yourself every winter and filling up your stock every year? Btw, the body counter for traffic victims is much higher than for influenza, which is much higher than for corona.
 
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I think it's well-nigh impossible for the government to completely contain outbreaks like this, no matter how hard they try. They'd have to completely stop all flights and ships coming in or out of the country, cordon off all the borders with unbreachable walls and tightly controlled checkpoints, and sterilise everything and everyone coming from the outside.

Then you have to consider the human factor. No matter how bad the virus or disease, some people just will not comply with orders to isolate and quarantine themselves. I've heard of one guy in Australia who still went out to shop for groceries even though he'd been tested positive and was ordered to remain at home for two weeks:

https://amp.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...g/news-story/d2231090a545077afb7474fba888d86c

There's also the problem inherent with our Western democracy where the leader of the country doesn't have absolute power like in authoritarian dictatorships (I don't support absolute power, to be clear). Sometimes, for some reason, those with lesser powers seem to be able override presidential orders:


Not saying we're doomed, but the coronavirus could be here for a while and we just have to wait it out. By all means, stock up and avoid crowded places if possible. Life as we know it will probably continue on but with some inconveniences that we'll have to adapt to, for now.
 
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grendel

Junior Member
If this current errmm.. situation(read: dangerous mass hysteria) is a sign of impending doom, the cause of our doom will be the irresponsible media and politicians who drive this insane hysteria, not a virus which appear to be less dangerous than a common flu.

It is true that the registrered novel corona deaths indicate higher fatality than the common flu. But, it is highly likely that the pandemic is already here and that the actual number of infected is 10 times the registrered number. Fact is that the majority of infected do not show symptoms and do not get sick. This means that the actual fatality of the virus is much much lower than the seasonal flu.

Please contact your local politicians and ask them to ignore the medias drive for strong and decisive action. The only real danger here is human ignorance.
 

Teknique

Junior Member
If this current errmm.. situation(read: dangerous mass hysteria) is a sign of impending doom, the cause of our doom will be the irresponsible media and politicians who drive this insane hysteria, not a virus which appear to be less dangerous than a common flu.

It is true that the registrered novel corona deaths indicate higher fatality than the common flu. But, it is highly likely that the pandemic is already here and that the actual number of infected is 10 times the registrered number. Fact is that the majority of infected do not show symptoms and do not get sick. This means that the actual fatality of the virus is much much lower than the seasonal flu.

Please contact your local politicians and ask them to ignore the medias drive for strong and decisive action. The only real danger here is human ignorance.
Bruce Aylward

"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.


In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."

The flu is dangerous because it infects a lot of people, not because its well..dangerous. Otherwise Flu seems to give serious complications to less than 1% of people and kill another .1%

The Coronavirus by contrast has a serious complication rate of 14-20%. So far there isn't evidence to suggest that the number of infected is so so high that the true coronavirus complication rate is lower than that. Furthermore 2 strains have been identified the S and the L strain, with one being more deadly than the other. I believe that's what we're seeing in italy. This opens up the door for influenza like mutation and reinfection, also it appears the virus can aerosolize and spread through ventilation systems according to a study out of singapore.
 

Teknique

Junior Member
 
I'd like to grill sausages on my balcony wearing a gas masked while waching the mall getting plundered.

2020 will be the year of big hysteria.

A few days ago I watched a guy buying a lot of toilet paper. Eighter he bought everything he needs for 10 years or he got some serious issues and should contact a doctore immediately.
 

MolagAmur

Well-Known Member
If this current errmm.. situation(read: dangerous mass hysteria) is a sign of impending doom, the cause of our doom will be the irresponsible media and politicians who drive this insane hysteria, not a virus which appear to be less dangerous than a common flu.

It is true that the registrered novel corona deaths indicate higher fatality than the common flu. But, it is highly likely that the pandemic is already here and that the actual number of infected is 10 times the registrered number. Fact is that the majority of infected do not show symptoms and do not get sick. This means that the actual fatality of the virus is much much lower than the seasonal flu.

Please contact your local politicians and ask them to ignore the medias drive for strong and decisive action. The only real danger here is human ignorance.
All speculation. Lets not pretend any of us have a clue about how dangerous this really is.
 

Najwalaylah

Exalted Member
Do you know about something like a influenza wave running though the world every winter with a death counter of thousands in Germany alone and hundreds of thousands worldwide? Do you lock down yourself every winter
I don't mix when I'm sick, if that's what you mean?

"... and filling up your stock every year?"​

I have on hand about three month's worth of staples / canned & sealed food that gets rotated into use over about twice that time-- not replaced once a year, because it's stuff I'll actually eat alongside fresh food. I have thirty-five gallons of drinking water in five gallon jugs, which is also rotated into use. I have N95 masks left over from the FIRES that Northern California has had for an appalling number of years, now-- good thing I do, because you can't find one right now in any store, large or small. Nor can I buy more paper products, so I'm slowly digging into what might seem like a hoard, and using cloth towels instead of paper ones all the time, rather than just most of the time. I have plain isopropyl alcohol and also aloe vera gel-- ready-mixed hand sanitizer is a rip-off, anyway. There are gallons of bleach in the laundry, kitchen, and bathroom, and also a few jugs stashed in the well-house (because I'm ready to 'shock' the well whenever it needs it). Got enough of the basics to not have to go out for a month if I'm advised not to.

A lot of this preparation has more to do with living in Earthquake-PG&E Power Outage-&-Wildfire country than with epidemics or pandemics, but at some point you're realise you're kind of covered for any event where you're expected to shelter in place or avoid crowds. At least I'm not out there rubbing elbows (because lots of folks sneeze and cough into their elbows, which in my opinion is the dumbest thing, ever) with others looking for supplies that I, through no fault of my own, already have.

"Btw, the body counter for traffic victims is much higher than for influenza"​

Which is to compare Fords with viruses.

"..., which is much higher than for corona."​

The novel corona virus from Wuhan has been around for much less than a year, so it's too early to say how many people per year it kills (that is, will kill). The rate of deaths per population infected is also hard to calculate (it involves trusting China to report accurately, among other unknowables), but is more significant at this point in time:

"In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:​
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]​

How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/
has not a single dull paragraph in it, but tells a most interesting tale of how a virus (granted, a flu virus) almost went away during the summer of the 15-month period during which it was pandemic, but surged back in August deadlier than ever.

Finally, for all I know I've already had it. I did have 'a cold' that lasted for four weeks.
 

Floky

New Member
I think I'm going to get to live through my first plague. I live in Southern California, and as of right now Seattle has a bunch of cases, and LA and San Francisco are about to blossom. The only thing holding back the full realization is the lack of testing. I think I'll be told to work from home before long, maybe in a week. (I wish MO2 was live now)

If Italy is a good case study, 10% of those infected really need some hospital care on the order of at least two weeks. This hits older folks a lot harder than the young, and most nations are made of a big population of older folks. If current rates of infection keep, hospital beds in the US could be maxed by mid May. We might be able to contain its spread? But the nature of the random new cases, and the botched response by the government, makes me feel its pretty well out there now.

I hope I am totally wrong and have no idea what I am talking about. I'd be just fine with that. But my science friends and I stocked up on canned goods and necessities a few weeks ago to be able to hunker down for a while.
Wow I live in South Carolina too and me and my room mates just spent a bunch of money dooms day peeping for this this to stay safe everyone and just hide in you room playing mortal
 

Xunila

Cronite Supporter
How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America
.
Comparing this Covid-19 to the Spanic Flu of 1918 is not too easy, because that happened end of WW1 in a hard situation in Europe because of the war with low medical assistance and bad hygienic conditions. Also e.g. the German government did not publish information about the flu and the newspapers did not, too.

Yes, Covid-19 seems to be more aggressive and has a longer infect period (14 days from all I know) than standard flu. But reading statistics is very difficult when one country runs a Covid-19-check together with every standard flu check (as Germany does) and other countries test the ill people coming to hospital only.
 

Najwalaylah

Exalted Member
Comparing this Covid-19 to the Spanic Flu of 1918 is not too easy, because that happened end of WW1 in a hard situation in Europe because of the war with low medical assistance and bad hygienic conditions. Also e.g. the German government did not publish information about the flu and the newspapers did not, too.

Yes, Covid-19 seems to be more aggressive and has a longer infect period (14 days from all I know) than standard flu. But reading statistics is very difficult when one country runs a Covid-19-check together with every standard flu check (as Germany does) and other countries test the ill people coming to hospital only.
It's true that the situations were different (people in 1918 weren't even all on the same page as to what caused disease; germs, or "miasma"). But the tendency to lie, to fall behind in informing the public, and to try to "prevent panic" by instilling false confidence in 1918 sounds very much like a current problem that could be just as dangerous this time. From the article I linked, which was written in 2017, this is the take-away:

"...(I)n my view, the most important lesson from 1918 is to tell the truth. Though that idea is incorporated into every preparedness plan I know of, its actual implementation will depend on the character and leadership of the people in charge when a crisis erupts.​
I recall participating in a pandemic “war game” in Los Angeles involving area public health officials. Before the exercise began, I gave a talk about what happened in 1918, how society broke down, and emphasized that to retain the public’s trust, authorities had to be candid. “You don’t manage the truth,” I said. “You tell the truth.” Everyone shook their heads in agreement.​
Next, the people running the game revealed the day’s challenge to the participants: A severe pandemic influenza virus was spreading around the world. It had not officially reached California, but a suspected case—the severity of the symptoms made it seem so—had just surfaced in Los Angeles. The news media had learned of it and were demanding a press conference.​
The participant with the first move was a top-ranking public health official. What did he do? He declined to hold a press conference, and instead just released a statement: More tests are required. The patient might not have pandemic influenza. There is no reason for concern.
I was stunned. This official had not actually told a lie, but he had deliberately minimized the danger; whether or not this particular patient had the disease, a pandemic was coming. The official’s unwillingness to answer questions from the press or even acknowledge the pandemic’s inevitability meant that citizens would look elsewhere for answers, and probably find a lot of bad ones. Instead of taking the lead in providing credible information he instantly fell behind the pace of events. He would find it almost impossible to get ahead of them again. He had, in short, shirked his duty to the public, risking countless lives.​
And that was only a game."​

"Virus Testing Kits Are In Short Supply" is a headline that a local news outlet ran yesterday (they got it from the New York Times). More locally, the first test kits arrived at area hospitals just the day before yesterday. At this rate, I don't have a lot of confidence that I'll *ever* find out if I had a mild case that went under the radar; might just have to hope that I didn't and also, then, that I'm not still contagious with whatever I had from (approximately) February 4th to March 4th.

Oh, well, maybe by April we'll know more.
 

grendel

Junior Member
All speculation. Lets not pretend any of us have a clue about how dangerous this really is.
True, it is speculation. When the WHO experts hold so different opinions about the actual number of infected and about what number the fatality rate will end at.... well .. anyone taking bets? I'l put my money on a fatality rate at 0.5%. Btw, I also think this is a good time to buy stocks.
 

Amelia

Senior Member
@SV staff : what is the situation in Sweden? Just curious how "our" SV guys working on MO2. Post some screens guys! :)
 

Xunila

Cronite Supporter
Current value for Sweden is 480 people with Covid-19 and first death today.
 
theres a lockdown were i live in israel 2 i think its worse than they say finaly it got to my head tht this is realy a danger and could be fatal!
 

Najwalaylah

Exalted Member
One of the two most sensible things about this pandemic that I've seen in the last 48 hours:
----
Another thing I've seen is the development of an entire new vocabulary (kind of a brain virus) for people who aren't special enough to get away with discussing the Wuhan coronavirus and its pandemic, etc., on YouTube without being demonised and demonitised by YT:

That Thing | What It's Safe To Call It
corona virus | modelo bug
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) | communal fiesta of the Middle Kingdom
pandemic | spamtastic event
The WHO (World Health Organization) | The WHAT
[EDIT] #TIL that the channel where the speakers were going to such trouble was demonitised anyhow. Funny, since it hasn't published a thing that hasn't either turned out to be true or been reasonably in line with what has, including the prediction that China as a political entity would turn around and blame some Western country / countries for originating the SARS-COV-2 and spreading it to China, not the other way 'round-- even though now, as that's happening, the Middle Kingdom can't decide whether it was the USA or Italy, and both stories of blame are being circulated. Throw enough mud, it will stick to someone?.
----
#That Hand Sanitizer Recipe Everyone's Obsessed With:

The CDC recommends searching for a product with at least 60 percent alcohol content—the minimum concentration that's effective. Research into nearby cupboards tells me that the isopropyl alcohol (pretty generic, so no need to mention a brand) sold as a "first aid antiseptic" (and also for "rubbing and massaging") is already only 70% alcohol (active ingredient), and the other 30% is water. "Some water is necessary to unravel a pathogen’s proteins, so 100 percent alcohol isn’t a good option", a warning text I read at some point stated. I would say, "good luck finding 100% alcohol" at the <name of cheap drug store> near you.

So, if you want to make your own hand sanitizer, only a very minimum of aloe vera or other skin-safe gel that contains some water need be added. (The math involved is left as an exercise for the reader.) If the aloe vera gel product in my cabinets is typical, it is mostly made of
1) water,
2) aloe vera and,
3) glycerin (a supply of which you can also find sold some places),

plus a couple of 'gelling' ingredients and some preservatives.

##Do you want to add gel at all?

You might not have to. However, it makes the alcohol evaporate a little less fast, gives you more time to spread the alcohol all over your hands, and since it's important when using standard hand sanitizer to cover all parts of the hands with it and then rub it in and leave it until it dries (instead of wiping it off on a towel, for instance), you'd have to ensure the same if using straight alcohol.

Precautions:
  • Alcohol is flammable. Act accordingly. Also, try not to inhale too many fumes.
  • Alcohol is absorbed in small quantities even through skin, and then your liver has to metabolise it. (Is this an argument for using something that's at least 60% ethanol (drinking alcohol) instead of isopropyl alcohol? Seems like a highly personal decision.) While sanitising your hands many times a day, maybe try to otherwise take it easy on your liver.
  • After sanitising your hands frequently with any alcohol-based concoction, you might want to consider some kind of emollient on your skin-- even if it's just shea butter, coconut or olive oil, even Vaseline-- to your personal taste. If you manage to get cracks in the skin of your hands, you'll be worrying about some other kinds of infections along with SARS-CoV-2.¹

¹ "The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV), the global authority on the designation and naming of viruses, have named this virus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This decision is described in detail in https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.937862v1.full.pdf.”
 
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Thread starter #20

I feel like we're at the inflection point where we need to figure if stalling the spread with associated economic hard times, is more sensible than developing herd immunity and just taking our losses. This thing may fling back and forth across the world for even a year to two years before we gain traction over it.

With that in mind, wouldn't it make more sense to just give yourself it now, and if you need it, have the ICU available rather than waiting for the Sophie's Choice times when everyone's grandma and grandpa are getting ventilated and there's no space left.
 
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