So no Christmas Event this year either huh?

There will be a Raffle of Caerus for sure. It has never not happened.

The only real questions are when and if the newb island will come with it.

That and if there is going to be a twist to it like there was last year with the chickens?
I really hope it happens as I've really enjoyed the events.

I've attended 2 and had lots of fun. It's a great way to celebrate the Christmas season.

The twist last year with the chickens was interesting but when I look back it was a lot of work to collect rewards. I did very well in the event however I spent many hours killing the 17,000 chickens and I didn't end up with the highest tally. If chickens this year I'd suggest the chickens have only 1 HP to simplify the task.
I dont think it will be chickens again since that was just something they made fit the person that had their house burnt down last year.

Odds are probably pretty good that it goes back to the bags as normal. But maybe they will be able to mix it up again somehow.

Hopefully they can at least mix up the loot table so there are some surprises.
I think they usually rebuild the area burnt down the year before with the event patch as well. Though they don't build it back the same so the event leads to a permanent change.
The raffle is a Tindremic thing so it would not be at those places.

Unless of coarse they actually do have some other event too.